Is it Legit? 5/27/25: Nick Pivetta, Jacob Wilson, and Kyle Stowers

We’re nearly a third through the season. We can start to have more confidence in certain stats. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that are stabilizing.

 

Nick Pivetta, SP, San Diego Padres

 

Pivetta is a 32-year-old veteran in his 9th MLB season and his first with the Padres. Prior to this year he had accumulated 1,029 IP, 178 GS, a 4.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 26.0% K%, and 8.6% BB%. However, in 2023-2024 he had a total of 288.1 IP, a 4.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 30.0% K%, and 7.3% BB%. He’s continued that success into 2025 with 56.1 IP in 10 Games Started, a 2.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 28.3% K%, and 8.1% BB%. Has he built upon improvements from the last 2 years, or is that career-best ERA and WHIP early season noise?

In 2023 he began to phase out the use of his slider and essentially eliminated his changeup. At this time he introduced both a sweeper and cutter. Cutters primarily combat opposite-handed batters. However, it allowed a .472 vs. LHB in 2023 and a .543 wOBA in 2024. In 2025 he has only thrown it 3.3% vs. LHB. Somewhat surprisingly he has increased its usage vs. RHB to 13.4%, with middling results. It has a .343 wOBA (51st percentile), 4.9% SwStr% (10th percentile), and 19.7% CSW% (41st percentile). Basically, the cutter is not behind his success this year. What about the sweeper?

The sweeper has a 19.5% overall usage, compared to 22.8% in 2024, and just 5.2% in 2023. Appropriately, he barely uses it vs. LHB, but it had a 40.3% usage vs. RHB in 2024 and 34.4% in 2025. So far it has allowed a .142 wOBA (67th percentile), 21.0% SwStr% (84th percentile), and 35.0% CSW% (70th percentile). Its results were OK in 2024 and great in 2023 (when he didn’t throw it much). Its velocity and movement profile are very similar to last year.

Arguably his signature pitch is a big curveball that he throws about 20% of the time. Surprisingly, it has a career-worst 5.7% SwStr% (14th percentile), near career-worst CSW% of 24.7% (23rd percentile), but a solid .225 wOBA (71st percentile). Basically, it’s also not responsible for his increased success this year either.

Which brings us to his most used pitch. His 49.1% usage of his four-seamer is on par with most of his career. It’s always had a very steep HAVAA of just .1 (3rd percentile) with a ton of IVB (18.8″) and good extension (6.9′). It’s down 1 mph since 2023 to 93.6 mph. Despite its steep HAVAA he continues to have a high hiLoc% of 60.3% (77th percentile). It continues to be a reliable pitch for him with a 13.7% SwStr% (85th percentile), 30.2% CSW% (73rd percentile), and .258 wOBA (86th percentile).

Verdict: Not Legit. Pivetta’s success this year appears to be largely based on batted ball luck. A 8.7% HR/FB% is about 6.5 points lower than his career. This is despite a career-high 12.1% Barrel%. He also has a .260 wOBA and .295 xwOBA. Some of this can be attributed to the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but not all of it. Pivetta is certainly a good pitcher who should be rostered in virtually all leagues, but now could be the time to sell high on him if you can.

 

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

 

Jacob Wilson is a 23-year-old rookie with a reputation as a contact-oriented and defensive-minded player with virtually no power. According to FanGraphs, he was their 2nd ranked prospect and 51st overall with a 50 Future Value, 60/70 Hit, 30/35 Game Power, 35/40 Raw Power, 45/45 Speed, and 45/50 Field. He posted some ridiculous numbers throughout the minors.

Many believed those strong outcomes were based largely on the lower-quality defenders in the minors. Once he made it to MLB his abundant, but weak contact would result in less-than-stellar numbers. He did get 103 MLB PA last year and he posted a .250/.314/.315 slash, .065 ISO, 9.7% K%, 7.8% BB%, and 86 wRC+. That utter lack of power seemed to validate what many expected.

So far this year in 215 PA he has a .350/.393/.495 slash, 5.1% K%, 5.6% BB%, .145 ISO, and 154 wRC+. Is his 2024 or 2025 closer to his reality?

There are two comps that are very similar to Wilson: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. They all rarely strike out, hit few barrels, have 30th-40th percentile Sprint Speed, have career MAX EVs of 107-108, and make tremendous amounts of contact. They also all have 1st percentile Bat Speed and very short swings.

Verdict: Mostly legit. I’m expecting all of his numbers to decline somewhat, but especially that .495 slugging. Based on how similar he is to Arraez and Kwan, that’s who I expect him to be. However, he does play in a very hitter-friendly park so he might end up with outcomes a little better than those two. I can’t see that 154 wRC+ continuing but he should remain a strong source of AVG and OBP.

 

Kyle Stowers, OF, Miami Marlins

 

Stowers is 27 years old and came over to the Marlins from the Orioles in 2024 along with Connor Norby in the Trevor Rogers trade. He was given a 45 FV, 35/40 Hit, 45/55 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, and 50/50 Speed from FanGraphs. In 307 PA prior to this year he had a .208/.268/.332 slash, 33.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, and 69 wRC+. In 195 PA this year he has a .316/.387/.556 slash, 28.2% K%, 9.2% BB%, and 157 wRC+. What’s behind his big improvement?

Since bottoming out in mid-August 2024 his Process+ started climbing and basically hasn’t stopped since. Improved Decision Value+ is driving the overall Process+ improvement this year.

Last year it was about 89 and this year it is up to 102.

He’s always had above-average quality of contact and those numbers are even better this year. His Bat Speed has increased to 88th percentile, he has a 99th percentile Barrel%, 95th percentile Hard-Hit%, and 82nd percentile Average Velocity.

Verdict: Legit. Improving Plate Discipline has allowed Stowers to take better advantage of his good power. His Pull Air% has also jumped significantly from 10.1% last year to 24.4% this year. The Barrel% is likely to decline somewhat and he does play in a pitcher-friendly park, but I think this is a player in line for a career season. He’s available in 29% of Yahoo leagues.

 

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)