Nvidia China revenue set to cross $6 billion in Q1 as investors brace for export ban impact
Nvidia’s (NVDA) revenue from China is set to hit $6.2 billion in the AI chipmaker’s first quarter, accounting for over 14% of total revenue, according to consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
That’s for the three months that ended on April 27, shortly after the Trump administration enacted a ban on sales of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. China is one of Nvidia’s biggest markets, and investors are closely watching the company’s commentary during its upcoming earnings report on Wednesday about how the ban will impact future sales.
Just as Nvidia’s revenue from China is set to soar 150% from the prior year to cross the $6 billion mark, its US revenue is projected to rise a more modest 60% to $21.6 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Overall revenue is set to hit $43.3 billion, analysts estimate.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has called the Trump administration’s export ban on its H20 chips “deeply painful” and said the chipmaker has lost $15 billion in sales as a result.
Nvidia said in an April regulatory filing that it will incur $5.5 billion in charges in its first quarter from the new restriction due to a write-down in inventory — meaning the company has a pool of chips that it can no longer sell to China.
“[N]ot only am I losing $5.5 billion … we walked away from $15 billion of sales and probably … $3 billion worth of taxes,” Huang told Stratechery’s Ben Thompson last week. Huang said China represents a $50 billion market for the company.
The comments came as Nvidia stock has struggled in 2025. Shares plunged in January when a new cheap AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek prompted demand concerns for its AI chips, and again in April as Trump’s trade war rocked the stock market.
Investors are hoping the chipmaker’s new deal with Saudi Arabia and sales of its latest Blackwell AI chips will power shares higher after its earnings report on Wednesday.
Nvidia stock rose as much as 3% on Tuesday ahead of its quarterly results. Options traders tracked by Bloomberg estimate the stock could rise or fall as much as 7.4% following the report.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note to investors last week that the $5.5 billion write-down in inventory resulting from the China ban on Nvidia chips would result in a lower gross margin for the period.
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Overall, Arya and Stifel analyst Ruben Roy expect Nvidia to modestly beat analyst expectations in the first quarter, but Arya said there is a risk of a “messy” outlook for Nvidia’s second quarter due to the China export ban.
