Reds series preview: Old friend alert

6 days agoLast Updated: May 26, 2025

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Last off-season the Royals made a bold trade, sending pitcher Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer in an attempt to find a table-setter for the lineup. India hasn’t hit like the Royals hoped and Singer has had mixed results as a much-needed starter for the Reds, although there is still plenty of season for each to contribute.

Singer isn’t the only former Royals player in town as the Reds begin a three-game series at the K this week. Former Royals closer Scott Barlow has become a frequently-used member of the bullpen, and the Reds signed former Royals infielder Garrett Hampson over the weekend.

Cincinnati Reds (26-28) vs. Kansas City Royals (29-25) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Reds: 4.59 runs scored/game (9th in MLB), 4.13 runs allowed/game (14th)

Royals: 3.31 runs scored/game (28th), 3.28 runs allowed/game (2nd)

The Reds have the tenth-highest walk rate – although the third-best walk rate on the road. As a team, they’re hitting just .212/.303/.335 against lefties.

Free agent Austin Hays has been a terrific find, and he’s a .351/.403/.579 on the road this year. Gavin Lux is hitting .360/.429/.560 over his last nine games, but is just 3-for-27 (.111) against lefties overall this season. Elly de la Cruz has the second-highest groundball rate in baseball. He had a terrific weekend, going 5-for-13 (.385) with a home run against the Cubs.

Spencer Steer has the fourth-highest popup rate and the seventh-lowest hard-hit rate among qualified hitters. Matt McLain has the fourth-highest strikeout rate among all hitters. Catcher Tyler Stephenson is mired in a 4-for-32 slump over his last nine games.

Only three teams have stolen more bases than the Reds, and Elly de la Cruz has the fourth-most steals in baseball with 17. The Reds are a pretty balanced, average defensive team, with de la Cruz below average at shortstop, and converted infielder Gavin Lux underwhelming in left field. Tyler Stephenson has thrown out just 2 out of 12 base-stealing attempts.

Reds expected lineup

Starting Lineup	PA	HR	SB	BA	OBA	SLG	wRC+	fWAR
Starting Lineup	PA	HR	SB	BA	OBA	SLG	wRC+	fWAR
CF TJ Friedl (L)	222	3	8	.285	.367	.399	111	1.1
3B Santiago Espinal (R)	166	0	2	.263	.325	.309	75	0.2
SS Elly de la Cruz (S)	235	9	17	.251	.323	.417	99	1.0
LF Austin Hays (R)	117	6	2	.332	.368	.583	153	1.1
DH Gavin Lux (L)	182	1	1	.289	.379	.409	118	0.4
1B Spencer Steer (R)	182	1	1	.289	.379	.409	118	0.4
RF Will Benson (L)	49	5	1	.302	.367	.721	186	0.6
C Tyler Stephenson (R)	72	1	0	.177	.292	.306	62	-0.2
2B Matt McLain (R)	189	6	11	.184	.287	.319	67	0.4
Bench	PA	HR	SB	BA	OBA	SLG		fWAR
C Jose Trevino (R)	112	3	0	.298	.333	.500	123	0.7
C Austin Wynns (R)	43	3	0	.400	.442	.700	211	0.7
1B Connor Joe (R)	37	0	1	.235	.297	.294	65	-0.4
IF Garrett Hampson (R)	41	0	2	.167	.359	.167	70	0.1

The Royals haven’t announced a starter for Tuesday’s game, although a bullpen day seems likely.

Nick Martinez has become a very solid pitcher since returning from a stint in Japan in 2022. He has the fourth-lowest walk rate among any pitcher with at least 100 innings over the last two seasons. He has gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts, with just four walks and an ERA of 1.74 over that time. He relies heavily on a changeup that opponents are hitting just .146 against with a 35 percent whiff rate.

Brady Singer gave up seven runs in less than three innings to the Astros a few weeks ago, but has otherwise been solid, giving up five runs in ten innings in his last two starts. He is posting the highest walk rate of his career so far at 10 percent. He is mixing in a cutter this year, throwing it about 11 percent of the time, with mixed results.

Hunter Greene has the fastest fastball among starting pitchers, humming it up there at 99 mph. But it is his slider that opponents are hitting just .115 against with a 49.6 percent whiff rate. Greene missed a few weeks with a groin issue, but returned Friday to pitch four innings, giving up two runs to the Cubs. Earlier this month, he had a 12-strikeout performance against the Nationals, giving up just two hits in six innings.

Expected pitching matchups

Monday, May 26, 3:10 CT	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
Monday, May 26, 3:10 CT	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
RHP Nick Martinez	3.43	3.22	57.2	6.7	2.0	1.5
RHP Michael Lorenzen	3.77	4.32	57.1	7.9	2.5	0.5
Tuesday, May 27, 6:40 CT	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
RHP Brady Singer	4.88	4.40	51.2	8.0	3.8	0.5
TBA
Wednesday, May 28, 6:40 CT	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
RHP Hunter Greene	2.54	3.37	49.2	11.4	1.8	1.2
LHP Noah Cameron	0.93	3.91	19.1	6.5	2.8	0.3

The Reds bullpen has a 4.11 ERA, but their 4.66 FIP is fourth-worst in baseball. Closer Emilio Pagán has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities and has a flyball rate of 63 percent, second-highest in baseball. Graham Ashcraft has a 56.3 percent groundball rate. Barlow has the ninth-highest walk rate among relievers. Taylor Rogers has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting him much better than righties.

Reds bullpen

Bullpen	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
Bullpen	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
RHP Emilio Pagán	3.75	4.21	24.0	10.5	2.3	0.1
RHP Tony Santillan	2.88	4.56	25.0	6.5	2.5	0.1
RHP Graham Ashcraft	3.76	2.44	26.1	10.3	3.4	0.7
LHP Taylor Rogers	2.84	3.93	19.0	8.0	3.8	0.1
RHP Luis Mey	3.75	4.42	12.0	10.5	3.8	0.0
LHP Brent Suter	2.54	3.90	28.1	5.4	1.6	0.2
RHP Scott Barlow	4.37	4.63	22.2	8.3	6.4	0.0
RHP Ian Gibaut	7.11	4.35	12.2	7.8	2.8	0.1

The Reds are 12-14 on the road this year, and haven’t won a road series since sweeping the Rockies in late April. They have dropped three out of four after enjoying a five-game winning streak. They’re a pretty middle-of-the-road team right now, but they certainly have some talented players like de la Cruz and Greene that can have a big series. It will be nice to see some old friends again like Singer, but hopefully the Royals can send them packing with some Ls.